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Getting back to the USN test. I have been listening to the DAN 2008 Technical Diving Conference. There is a transcript available, but be warned - its missing quite a lot of the actual conversations, and many important details were left out. Your will get more from listening to it.
here with slides
What is unique about this presentation (and better than the UHMS version, also 2008) is that the DAN one has extra material included on the end, that goes onto describe different types of deep stops, that were not part of the test or mentioned in the paper. It then recommends and approves a certain type of deep stop (more on this in the next post).
I know this stuff is boring to many, but it does give you more insight as to why the USN test was done the way it was, and how it was destined to fail.
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From the DAN 2008 Presentation. Quotes from Wayne Gerth:
33:00 "The model is the BVM3 - a
statistical model that is fitted to a large number of air and nitrox dives - published."
36:44 "We show VGE data, because everyone wants to see that, but in the end, VGE and DCS data don't relate very well."
38:00 "... if any profile exceeded 7%, we would stop (the test). Like wise, we did want to waste a whole lot of time testing two profiles that we grossly over estimated the risk for. So if they were close to zero, then we wanted to stop (the test) somewhere there, so we could rethink and start again. So we also wanted to reject low, if any of the profiles got to less than 3%."
39:30 "The VGE and the DCS that we saw, did not correlate well."
40:10 "The conclusion for this trial... Slower gas elimination, and/ or continued gas uptake offset any benefits of reduced bubble growth at deep stops."
Questions: Ron Murray
49:10 Q. "My concern with having apples to apples with 174 mins of decompression (for both profiles), that it was the optimal decompression for the VVAL18, but it was NOT the optimal decompression for the BVM3. and had you had a significantly shorter total decompression time for the BVM3, you would have had a lower risk of DCS for the BVM, and we potentially would have seen a different outcome. I'm just concerned that we maybe should not have compared apples to apples (profile times)."
A. "The actual thing that was tested .. in the end, it didn't matter what algorithm we used to calculate these profiles - one (profile) had a deep stop Skew, and the other did not. And the only difference between the two schedules was that (skew)."
50:20 Q. "When you were looking at which different profiles to test, had you used the BVM to calculate the risk, and assign the decompression for 170 for 30, it would not of assigned 174 minutes of decompression. And now you have a much lower risk with a shorter decompression?"
A. "That is correct. But... No, we have the same risk, for a shorter decompression. There were two ways in which we examined in the experimental design. One was to test algorithm vs algorithm with two different schedules, that had total decompression times, but the same decompression risk. The other, as we tested where the decompression times were the same, and the DCS risks were different. So the issue was, which is easier to demonstrate in an experiment. What takes a lesser n of dives, and we decided the cleanest most direct answer..... I should say either one of those two approaches is conceptually equivalent, we could have done it either way. The issue then became what is the number of man dives to do in order to prove there is no difference in risk."
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Some points I'd like to make:
The BVM3 is a statistical model fitted to probabilistic data points. That data is navy shallow stop data. The BVM3 is not a deep stop model or a dual phase model like the VPM / RGBM.
The BVM3 profile used is "Skew" type profile (see next post). VPM-B does not use this type of profile.
The test would be stopped if either test profile exceeded the low or high limits.
The VGE and the DCS did not correlate well.
The two profiles had the same run time, but different risk levels. It was expected for profile A1 to give lower DCS than profile A2. But the results were not normalized to the same risk basis on the graphs. If the DCS rates had corrected for the difference in the profile risk rate (to get them on the same scale), then the two DCS lines would have been drawn much closer together. But because the data on the graphs was raw, the difference is exaggerated unnaturally, and the "shock" value is maximized. That is not good for public viewing.
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